Human Intelligence Increase: The Last 4,000 Years and The Next 40 Years
By ROBERT ANTON WILSON
We can expect more changes in human life during the next 40 years than occurred
in the previous 4,000 years.
This is a perfectly safe, non-Utopian prediction because of a little understood
factor in human life which I call the V
function. V stands for several things
simultaneously – Intelligence Intensification and Information Increase, for
instance, V can also mean ego – that is the mutation and dilation of our
self-images as we are continually transformed by the techno-social forces that
have been insulating us for the past several millenniums.
Before discussing the accelerated metamorphoses of the next 40 years, let us
review briefly how the V function has
been progressively discovered.
Just before the American and French Revolutions of 1776 and 1788, several philosophers
began to propose that there was no limit to “progress” – that there was nothing
in human life that couldn’t be changed and improved indefinitely. Condorcet, the mathematician, expressed this
idea most pointedly of all, daring to speak of “the infinite perfectibility of mankind.” Such ideas played a large role in unleashing
both of the revolutions mentioned, and the Mexican revolution of 1810, and a
great deal of subsequent radicalism.
Of course, Condorcet and the other 18th century radicals were a bit too optimistic; they all tended to think
that there would be no hindrance to perpetual progress once monarchy had been
replaced by democracy and the Pope had been prevented from interfering with
scientific enquiry. Things were not
quite that simple, and most of the Utopian thought of the 19th
century – including that of Karl Marx, whose passionate desire for justice
combined with his intolerant authoritarianism unleashed the Communist movement
– was based on attempts to produce “Instant Progress” by giving the State the
power to, as it were, force everybody to be happy. This hasn’t worked very well.
In the 1890’s, however, two brothers who happened to be the grandsons of one
American president and the great-grandsons of another, namely Brooks and Henry
Adams, began to see the laws of social change a bit more clearly. They proposed what Henry called the Law of Acceleration. This alleged law, which is not quite
accurate, claims that change is not caused by politics or revolutions, which
are only symptoms; change, the
Specifically, Henry assumed a 90,000-year interval from the dawn of Homo
Erectus (anthropology was just beginning then) to the Scientific Revolution of
Galileo, Bacon, etc. circa 1600. He
assumed further that the next jump had been completed circa 1900, with quantum
theory, the discovery of radium, the Wright Brothers, etc. Now 300 is the square root of 90,000, so
Henry Adams assumed the next jump would be completed in
years – that is, in
roughly 22 ½ years, or around June, 1922.
Things are not (or were not) moving quite that fast.
But, while Henry was indulging in wild mathematics, brother Brooks had hit on
something even more interesting. He
noted that the accumulation of capital – that is the center of economic power
in the world – had been moving steadily westward for several thousand
years. It had moved, he noted, from
(Is it about to rebound eastward suddenly due to the emerging Arab
oil-states? We will see reasons to doubt
as we proceed.)
In 1918, a military engineer, Major C.H. Douglas, who evidently had not read
Brooks and Henry Adams but sounds as if he had, carried their kind of thinking
a step further. The major factor in
social change,
The increment of association simply means
that when you’ve got more people organized together, you can accomplish more
work; something Adam Smith had already noticed in 1776. But
Obviously, a tribal society could not build the Parthenon, even if an architect
of genius were born among them. The
increment of association and the cultural heritage were not there. Similarly, a Renaissance city-state, even
with Leonardo da Vinci in charge, could not put Neil Armstrong on the
Moon. From trajectories like these,
A few years after
The time-binding function, Korzybski calculated, operated roughly like a
geometrical progression:
2 4 8 16 32 64
This seems to be a much closer approximation of the truth that Henry Adams’
inverse square guesstimate. Dr. O.R.
Bontrager has collected scores of graphs of the rate of change in various
fields of technology, and they all approximate the graph of Korzybski’s simple
geometrical progression.
Although this is not as shocking, at first sight, as
We now know that some things are moving
even faster. For instance, J.R. Platt of
In 1928, when that long man, Charles Lindberg, was flying the
Fuller realized the highest form of synergy was mind itself, which is, as he
says, inherently self-augmenting. That
is, you can’t put two ideas together without a third idea emerging, almost as
in our sexual example above. Fuller
agrees with
In 1944, Nobel physicist Edwin Schrödinger added the next block to the
definition of I2, in a book called What is
Life? Schrödinger noted that everything
in the universe, except life, follows the Second law of Thermodynamics in
moving steadily toward maximum entropy (which for our purposes we can define
loosely as chaos or incoherence.) Life,
however, moves in the opposite direction: toward higher organization, greater
coherence, negative entropy.
In the next few years, almost
simultaneously, Claud Shannon of Bell Laboratories and Norbert Weider of M.I.T.
realized that the information in a message could be mathematically expressed as
negative entropy. The whole science of
cybernetics comes out of this discovery, but that is not our topic here. What is interesting to us, in terms of I2,
is that the movement of life toward greater coherence is, as Shannon and
Weiner, vastly accelerated as life’s techniques of information processing
improve. In short, the movement from
grunts to language, to math, to computers, is a move towards Information
Intensification and against entropy, a movement toward coherent order and
against random decay.
As Bucky Fuller was quick to point out, the development of Information Theory
by Shannon and Weiner enables us to see the human mind as the greatest
synergy-machine, the greatest tool for doing-more-with-less, in this part of
the universe.
Fuller points out that knowledge can only increase (except for tragedies like
brain damage in an individual or totalitarianism in a society.) As our
communication skills and information processing improve, human knowledge as a
whole accelerates synergistically.
Therefore, both hard and soft technologies accelerate – ideas and tools
both change faster, faster, faster. And
capital accumulates accordingly.
The ever-provocative Dr. Timothy Leary gives us a final set of models to
understand the law of acceleration. In
The Intelligence Agents, 1979, Leary claims the east-to-west movement, seen as
a migration of capital by Brooks Adams, is really a movement of genes. The Earth turns west-to-east; the hardier,
more innovative genes, he claims, go against this and move east-to-west. The shift of power from
This oddly parallels the theory of sociologist Carl Oglesby that there is a
cowboy-versus-Yankee war in our ruling class.
The cowboys are still looking for a new frontier, Oglesby says; the
Yankees have turned conservative.
Control of our economy is split between the old
There is clear relevance between all
these notions, and they all contribute to our understanding of socio-economic
change. The Adamses on migration and
acceleration, Douglas on increment of association, Korzybski on “time-binding,”
Fuller on synergy, Schrödinger on life as an anti-entropic process, Shannon and
Weiner on information as negative entropy, and Leary on neuro-genetics, all
illustrate part of what we mean by Information Increase. That Intelligence Intensification (a term
borrowed from Leary) is part of the world round 4,000 year information
explosion should also be clear. Our
hunting-gathering ancestors did not need the variety of kinds and styles of
intelligence that the Greeks of Plato’s age needed. More intelligence, of different flavors and
functions, were necessary for the transformations known to us as the Renaissance,
the Industrial Revolution, and the rise of representational government. New types of intelligence are being produced
to cope with the computer revolution and the burst into space.
The other aspect of I2 – the continuous mutation of the ego – is
more subtle. Tribal people only know
themselves and define themselves as units within the tribe, just as they only
know the universe as a few miles, or a few hundred miles, with a sky over
it. Urbanization and civilization
created a domesticated human ego, more self-direction, and a quality of
alienation or anomie resultant from the loss of the tribal bond (extended
family.) The Renaissance created the
modern individual, questing, impatient, monstrously “selfish” by the standards of
traditional societies, seeking personal and impersonal goals unthinkable
earlier in evolution. In this century,
and especially since 1945, a new ego, a new social self-definition, is emerging, amid the usual chaos and anxiety
that attend any major transformation.
We are less like our grandparents than they were like the first food-gathering
hominids. Every time you turn on the TV,
you participate in a miracle that is transforming you more than you know. It doesn’t matter what’s on the tube; as
McLuhan said, the medium is the message – to a great extent anyway. The very fact that the tube can bring you
live pictures from the other side of the planet causes you to know yourself in
a different way than any previous generation.
You intuitively have a different sense of who you are, where you are,
what you are and why you are.
This neurological shockwave, which has been rising and accelerating for 4,000
years, is not going to stop or decelerate in the next 40. Life will continue to be I-opening in every
sense.
The computer revolution will mutate us far more than TV, and much faster. Here’s an example of time-scale: when I
entered high school in 1946, there were virtually no TV’s in private homes in
the
The computer is a seductive beast.
Everybody – even people who think they hate technology – gets hooked
after a few hours of sitting at the console and playing around with this
marvelous toy. Children seem to turn on
to it even faster, and jump quicker from simple to sophisticated
programming. Thus, the proliferation of
home computers in the 1980’s is going to be a tremendous quantum jump in all
dimension of I2 – intelligence intensification, information increase
and a new sense of who and what we are.
You can’t play with computers for long without beginning to sense that
intelligence is the capacity to receive, integrate and transmit signals. You begin to see your own nervous system as a
marvelous computer in itself; and you want to expand and accelerate its
workings. You want it to receive more
signals, integrate them into better simulations or models of the world,
transmit them more efficiently.
Intelligence Increase begins to seem as hedonic as the quest for
conscious-expanding in the 60’s.
You begin to understand McLuhan’s paradoxical claim that the medium is the
message. The ideas in this article –
especially the Schrödinger-Fuller concept of evolution as a struggle for better
information and less entropy – begin to make sense intuitively and
sensorily. Your nervous system is
expanding by interfacing with the computer, which in turn will more and more be
interfacing with other computers on Earth and in space.
Meanwhile, of course, none of our present problems are going to go away
overnight.
There is no need to build doomsday scenarios about this worldwide struggle to
decentralize wealth and power. The first
axiom of the I2 hypothesis is that if a problem exists, a solution
must also exist. The evolutionary
function of problems is not to lead us to throw up our hands and cry out that
the species is doomed, but to provoke us to think of solutions.
Sometime in the next 15 years, between 1980 and 1995, the first longevity pills
will be appearing. This only a guess, of
course – the time factor cannot be estimated, really – but there are more
scientists working on life extension today than there were working on atomic
energy in the 1930’s, before Einstein wrote his famous letter to President
Roosevelt about German research in nuclear weaponry. As soon as any country gets a strong hint
that some other country might have an anti-aging formula, or might be close,
such research will spurt ahead dramatically.
(Some of the longevity pills currently used by faddists – especially Vitamin E,
megadoses of Vitamin C, and RNA – may already be some slight help in extending
lifespan, although the evidence is not conclusive yet.)
Several researchers have already reported extension of lifespan in experimental
animals.
There have been several articles on this subject in popular magazines lately,
and a rash of books such as Prologevity (Rosenfeld), the Life Extension
Revolution (Kent), the Immortalist (Harrington), The Immortality Factor
(Segerberg), etc. The avant-guard 10 percent of the population is already
looking forward to the conquest of aging and the eventual conquest of
death. When this message reaches 30
percent of the population, both government and private industry can be expected
to invest in this research much more than at present. Assuming that the first breakthrough,
however crude will occur between now and 1995 is reasonable. Even if the first life-extension drug only
increases lifespan 10 or 15 percent, the psychological impact will be
immense. Expectations will rise and research
will accelerate even faster.
Far-out sociologist F.M. Esfandiary may not be excessive in claiming, “If you
can survive the next 20 years, you will probably never die.”
The Age of Space, of course, has already begun.
Over 100 men and women have been into space; our TV brings us satellite
photos every night on the weather forecasts and has brought us pictures of Mars
and Jupiter. As home computers linked up
with satellites in space become more common, the sense will grow in all of us
that we are participating in the Space Age even if we are staying at home. But the longevity revolution will certainly
increase the “population problem” in everybody’s awareness, so that migration
into space will seem more and more necessary.
Since we already have communication satellites in plenty, the solar power
satellites urged by
Dr. Barry Commoner, one of the leading experts on ecology, pointed out at the
1980 meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science that,
even before some kind of ecological disaster hits the planet, we will be in
serious economic trouble if we continue to base our economy chiefly on
non-renewable resources such as oil and coal.
It’s a simple fact of economics that as a resource grows scarcer, its
price goes up. (Looked at your gasoline bill lately?) If energy is not to become something only the
rich can afford, Dr. Commoner says we must switch to renewable resources pretty
damn quick.
Solar power is the most abundantly available of all renewable resources, and
satellites are the best way to tap a lot of it.
But such solar satellites are just the first step in our expansion into extra-terrestrial
economy.
Engineer G. Harry Stine has calculated that there are 10100 technical
processes that can be performed cheaper or more efficiently in space than on
the surface of a planet. This is an
example of doing-more-with-less that might even make Bucky Fuller blink, but it
is simple physics, based on the zero-gravity conditions and high-grade vacuum
available in space.
In case anybody doesn’t know 10100 means 10 with a hundred zeroes
after it. This is quite a large number (says he with English understatement)
and makes the Industrial Revolution look like a tempest in a teapot by
comparison. It seems to mean that, as
industry moves into space, the rate of capital increase will accelerate much
faster than the two percent per year that has prevailed since the late 19th
century. In fact, it indicates that we
are about to experience the greatest quantum jump in energy, resources, and
wealth, since history began.
The word “we” in the above sentence is, of course, ambiguous. In guessing how much the Great Economic Boom
of space industrialization means to the human race generally, rather than just
to the multinational corporations, keep in mind (a) the Third World liberation
movements and other poor people’s crusades are not going to go away (b) even
under our present system of monopoly capitalism, living standards have steadily
risen for the majority. (That is,
contrary to Marx, capitalism has not meant that the rich always get richer and
the poor always get poorer; rather the rich continue to get richer, but fewer
and fewer are poor in the 19th century sense. Our unemployed poor, on Welfare, are far more
comfortable and healthier than the working poor in Marx’s day.) (c) As the information-intelligence
revolution continues, the deprived will find better, more rational ways to
press their demands for a fair share of the pie. That is, it is easy to ignore, or refuse
concessions to, a band of crazy terrorists; it is not easy to ignore a group of
people as well organized as American labor today.
Bucky Fuller and Werner Erhard have picked 1995 as a target date for the
abolition of starvation worldwide. This
may sound hopelessly Utopian now – but that is only because we are so accustomed
to stupidity and narrow greed in high places. Making every allowance for that
factor of human cussedness, it seems reasonable to say that the Fuller-Erhard
goal must be achieved in the 40-year span this article is considering. And there is no reason why we shouldn’t aim
for 1995; as any karate teacher will tell you, success depends on aiming at
more than you think you can achieve.
Here’s where the much-maligned Human Potential Movement comes into the
picture. This was not invented in the
1970’s, as shallow critics believe, but in the 1950’s. It emerged from the interpersonal emphasis of
psychologists like Harry Stack Sullivan, who realize that a “sick” person is
just one part of a “sick” situation; and from the rising popularity of group
therapy, replacing the old individual therapy; and especially from Dr. Abraham
Maslow’s discovery that healthy people are more interesting than sick people –
i.e. that health is what psychologists really ought to study.
Freud studied the neurotic, and tried to restore than to normalcy, without a
very clear idea of what normalcy was.
Maslow studied the conspicuously healthy – the persons he called
“self-actualizing individuals” – and found they were as far from the norm as
the mentally ill are. Due to Maslow,
psychologists began to realize that the normal state is rather dull and
stupid. Emphasis shifted from treating
the ill to “make them normal” into treating both the ill and the normal to make
them self-actualizing, i.e. to show them how to achieve their full potential.
Although there are now several branches or schools of the Human Potential
movement, with several varieties of jargon or “psychobabble,” the best summary of what the whole
Consciousness Revolution is all about is, I think, that given by Dr. Leary in
the previously mentioned Intelligence
Agents.
As Leary states the case, there are eight varieties of
consciousness-intelligence which we all potentially possess and which we can
all develop to a higher general level than the present norm. These are:
Bio-survival intelligence. Using your body to avoid danger efficiently,
as any intelligent animal does. We only
learn this kind of consciousness if our major interest is sports of the more
violent sort, like football. We all
learn more thorough martial arts such as kung fu, karate, aikido, etc.
Emotional intelligence. Using the emotional circuits in your brain to
understand other people’s emotions, “where they’re coming from,” and how to
relate to them when they seem irrational.
In our society, only women seem to be trained in this kind of
consciousness and men are generally clumsy as oafs. Women’s Liberation and the growing influence
of Human Potential has made the avant third of the male population more or less
aware of this, and the attempt to become more “sensitive” to others has at
least begun. We can only expect it to
increase (and the sooner the better.)
Semantic intelligence. The ability to use words and other symbols
without committing gross errors of judgment.
This is the only type of intelligence our schools even attempt to teach,
and since we live in a deluge of words, symbols, and other signals – and since
the computer evolution is upon us – we all need to learn how to receive,
integrate, and transmit symbols more efficiently.
Socio-sexual intelligence. The capacity to relate to others without
being exploitative and without being an exploiter. Our society traditionally treats sex as a
special case, but it is really part of the whole social consciousness
game. The rules are the same, in sex or
in other relations between people: treat the other person as you want to be
treated. At present, few have that
degree of maturity, and most are either bullies or masochists. A great deal of therapy, group or otherwise,
merely consists of teaching people a modicum of socio-sexual consciousness, so
they can cease to be bullies or masochists.
Neuro-somatic intelligence. The ability to stay “high”, to look and feel
like a happy, healthy young adult all your life. This is somewhat “spookier” than the previous
kinds of consciousness, but only because it is still statistically rare. When someobody else transmits this to you,
it’s called “Christian Science” or “Faith Healing,” etc. Maslow found that his self-actualizing people
do it for themselves, without a guru.
However arcane it may seem at present, this type of intelligence is
increasing because weed had made temporary flashes of it familiar to about a
third of the population, because biofeedback is showing us how to control it
scientifically, and because the Human Potential Movement, and such exotic
imports as Zen and yoga, are making it more accessible to people every year.
Metaprogramming intelligence. The capacity of the brain to become aware of
its own programming, and to rewire itself for more pleasurable, more efficient,
more successful programs. This is the
goal of all of the more advanced forms of psychotherapy and the Eastern mystic
traditions. It means turning all your
mechanical reflexes into voluntary choices – ceasing to be a robot and
developing your full Human Potential – and it is still exceedingly
uncommon. The whole Aquarian philosophy,
or course, is based on the hope that this transformation of humanity from
mechanical reactions to Creative Actions can be accelerated by the growing
synthesis of Eastern and Western psychologies, by new discoveries in the
neuro-sciences, and by the fact that the accelerated changes that we are going
through demand that our brains themselves accelerate and change.
Leary adds two further kinds of intelligence, which are so infrequent in our
society at present that to talk of them at all sounds “mystical.” These are Neurogenetic Intelligence – the capacity to intuitively grasp,
through direct brain-DNA feedback, the Evolutionary script, the meaning of I2,
and one’s own role in the entire drama of I2 emerging out of the
primordial slime to higher and higher levels of coherence; and Neuroatomic Intelligence which has to
do with the weird stuff that some scientists don’t even admit exists, such as
ESP and psycho-kinesis.
I think it is safe to predict that, within the 40-year span of this article, we
will have much more precise scientific knowledge about how to increase all
eight of these levels of consciousness.
In short, I think we can expect a quantum jump in human functioning, to
greater intellectual efficiency, greater emotional sensitivity and stability
and more self-awareness, self-direction, and zest-for-living.
Now let us look briefly at some of the other changes and breakthroughs that can
be expected in the next 40 years.
Human cloning will be possible. (One
sensational book, rejected by most scientists, claims that is has already
occurred.) Some of the implications of
this are so staggering that they make the wildest science fiction seem
tame. One can imagine a dictator cloning
a whole army of killer-zombies from some low-IQ high-muscle prototype, or some
eccentric Sultan cloning a harem of Sophia Lorens, etc. Dozens of similarly bizarre fantasies will be
possible and one can only accept cloning if one believes that I2 is
really going to increase also.
More significantly, cloning will complete our sexual reorientation. Contraception has broken the sex=pregnancy
“law” by making sex without reproduction possible; cloning will change our
attitudes further by making reproduction without sex possible. A whole new definition of humanity,
sexuality, and sociality will emerge, which we can only dimly foresee.
Cities in space must inevitably follow
space factories. That is, neither male
nor female engineers can be expected to put in long stints out there without
the heterosexual majority demanding the usual companionship and eventually, the
traditional family structure. Since designs
for space cities have existed since 1968, and have been improved several times
already, real space cities are inevitable in our 40-year forecast.
People living in space will be as different from Terrans as the first settlers
of the
Or consider the following Utopian visions:
-- Drugs to permanently increase intelligence
-- Artificial sight for the blind
-- A cure for cancer
Does it seem visionary to predict these within the next 40 years? A poll of scientists conducted by McGraw-Hill
in 1977 found that the majority of informed researchers believe we will have
all three within the next 20 years.
In fact, since these predictions were made in 1977, we have already seen the
development of one type of very limited, very expensive artificial sight for
the blind, in laboratory prototype only; and it has been discovered that one
known drug, lecithin, can raise intelligence to a limited degree.
One psychiatrist, Dr. Robert Newport, has predicted that, within 15 years,
psychotherapists will be mainly diagnosticians.
That is, they will merely decide what is wrong with a given patient and
then prescribe the right chemicals to restore the brain to equilibrium. This was perhaps uttered with some whimsy –
but Freud himself predicted that such chemotherapy would make his work obsolete
someday.
Dr. Nathan Kline has claimed that, by 2000, we will have such specific chemical
brain-change agents as: drugs to increase or decrease mothering behavior, drugs
to improve memory or to remove specific memories, drugs to prolong or shorten
childhood or any other stage of life, etc.
It is hardly visionary, then, to project that, within our 40-year purview, we
will all be able to program our nervous systems to add, subtract, or multiply
any behavior we wish to alter.
We have traditionally been limited and tormented by three factors which
theology calls “the world, the flesh, and the devil.” As the French philosopher Bernal pointed out,
in modern terms, the world means the limited resources of this planet, over
which we have been fighting for the past several thousand years. Space migration means that we are no longer
hemmed in by this limitation. We are
moving from the closed system of Terra to the open system of extraterrestrial
expansion.
The flesh, to Bernal, meant the brevity of human life – the grim fact that for
most of us, senility, the other diseases of age and death itself come upon us
before we have begun to figure out what life is all about. Anti-aging drugs and other life-extension
techniques will soon deliver us from that curse, and within the next 40 years
we will all be re-oriented to living centuries, not decades, and to pursing the
scientific quest for actual immortality.
The devil, of course, merely represents our own inner irrationality. All that we have said about intelligence
increase and consciousness expansion indicates that we are on the threshold of
major victories against the most pernicious of the three traps that have
previously constrained us.
That is, the world represents limits in space which we are outgrowing, the
flesh represents limits in life-time which we are also outgrowing, and the
devil represents limits in our own consciousness which we can also
outgrow. We are evolving into an
entirely new relationship to space, time, and mind. The law of acceleration, increment of
association, synergy, etc. are all aspects of the single fact that intelligence
has been increasing more rapidly since life began. At first, major changes came only in billions
of years, then in millions, then in thousands.
After the scientific revolution circa 1600, we began to get used to
rapid jumps every century. Some of us
are now growing accustomed to rapid quantum leaps to higher coherence every
generation.
We have to expect such leaps every decade now, to understand what the next 40
years will really be like.